The potential for zero and low-emission vehicles in Norway

Development of road transport scenarios and policy recommendations

Published: 02/02/2017

Ecofys, THEMA Consulting Group (Norway) and VTT (Finland) supported the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communication with the development of road transport scenarios and policy recommendations. Norway has committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions with 40% by 2030. This ambition cannot be achieved without cutting emissions in the transport sector. In this study, Ecofys and its partners investigated how new car technologies and policies can assist in achieving this goal.

The experts team assessed strong trends like e-mobility and other low or zero emission technologies to show their potential for emission cuts from road transport in 2030. The report provides an overview of the current technology status on low emission vehicles, including vehicles running on biofuels, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, full electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.

The core of this work was the development of scenarios in which 10%, 30% and 50% emission reductions are realised compared to the 2005 situation. In the scenario development, the consortium assessed how the vehicle stock should evolve to reach these emission reductions, what costs are associated, but also what kind of policies are required to make this happen.

The report concludes that a scenario without any specific incentives for EVs and plug-in hybrids will result in an emissions reduction path of 10% as long as the general incentives for low emissions in purchase tax is sustained. In order to achieve emissions reduction levels of 30% and 50%, strong economic incentives on top of the purchase tax or prohibitions on fossil cars are needed at some point in time. To achieve an emission reduction level of 50%, all newly built cars from 2020 on should be zero-emission vehicles, as well as buses and trucks in local (short distance) transport.

The report was written in Norwegian language, please find a English summary for download next to it.