INDCs lower projected warming to 2.7°C

Climate Action Tracker Update October 2015

Published: 01/10/2015

The combination of Government climate action plans, if implemented, would bring global warming down to 2.7°C,  according to analysis by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT). On the day of the October 1, UN deadline for governments to submit their emission reduction targets, or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) for 2025 and 2030, the CAT’s estimate of their impact on warming shows that, if fully implemented, they would bring warming down to 2.7°C – an improvement of 0.4°C since the last assessment of pledges at the Lima talks in December. This is the first time since 2009, when the CAT began calculating temperature estimates from climate action pledges, that projected warming has dipped below 3°C. 

China’s INDC and related policies would result in a peaking of China’s carbon dioxide emissions in the late 2020s, and which will have substantial consequences for post-2030 emissions, resulting in lower overall global warming.

However, the CAT’s current policy projection (which estimates warming from the policies Governments have in place now) would still see a warming of 3.6°C (3.3 to 3.8°C) by 2100.  The INDCs would reduce warming by about 0.6 to 1.1°C from that pathway.

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