How close are INDCs to 2°C and 1.5° pathways?

Climate Action Tracker Update

Published: 02/09/2015

This Climate Action Tracker update finds that INDCs announced by 1 September 2015 lead to global emissions far above the levels needed by 2025 and 2030 to put the world on track to hold warming below 2°C, or to below 1.5°C, in 2100.

29 governments have submitted INDCs, covering around 65% of global emissions in 2010 (excluding LULUCF). The Climate Action Tracker has directly assessed 16 of these INDCs covering 64.5% of global emissions in 2010 (excluding LULUCF). With the INDCs submitted to date, the Climate Action Tracker projects total global emissions are on track to be 53-57 GtCO2e in 2025 and 55-59 GtCO2e in 2030, far above the least-cost global pathways consistent with limiting warming below 2°C. Additional reductions in the order of 12-15 GtO2e by 2025 and of 17-21 GtCO2e by 2030 are needed for global emissions to be consistent with a 2°C pathway.

Aside from the insufficient ambition of the aggregate INDCs, there is a significant gap between current policies and the INDCs: global emissions under currently implemented policies are projected to be higher than the already inadequate INDC levels.

Find additional insights and all INDCs analysed so far at: climateactiontracker.org