2.7°C is not enough - we can get lower

Climate Action Tracker Update COP21

Published: 08/12/2015

As of 8 December, 158 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) have been submitted to the UNFCCC, covering 185 countries and 94% of global emissions. In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker confirms its earlier estimate that, if the submitted INDCs are fully implemented and policies of similar strength are implemented after 2030, they would lead to a median warming of around 2.7°C by 2100 (a full range of 2.2- 3.4˚C, which means there is a likely chance of holding warming below 3°C).

Compared to the 3.6°C by 2100 warming that is projected to result from current policies, the climate pledges submitted in the INDCs lower warming by about 0.9°C – but only if all governments fully implement their pledges. Both current policies and INDCs are projected to lead to warming that far exceeds either the 1.5 or 2°C limits under discussion in Paris.

The Paris Agreement can raise efforts by including a long-term warming limit, an associated long-term operationalization in terms of deep emissions reductions by mid century, and regular reviews of action that lead to actually getting on track for the long-term limit.