Warsaw unpacked: A race to the bottom?

Climate Action Tracker - Policy Brief

Published: 20/11/2013

With currently implemented government policies, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to a warming of 3.7°C, about 0.6°C higher than that under the Copenhagen pledges. Under present policies there is about a one in three chance of exceeding 4°C by 2100.

Since the Warsaw COP began, the announcement by Japan effectively enlarged the 2020 emissions gap by 3-4% or 356 MtCO2e in 2020. Australia's backtracking on implementation could widen the gap by another 25 MtCO2e. These negative developments tend to outweigh some positive signals: the US could - if policies were fully implemented - reduce the gap by around 523 MtCO2e; and policy developments in China, including the ban on new coal-fired power plants in some regions, could deliver additional reductions in the near future.

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Relying on these and other findings, Dr Niklas Höhne presents expectations on the new international agreement on climate change that is to be agreed in Paris 2015: