EU 2030 - Six feasible climate actions to keep Europe on track

Published: 21/01/2014

The 2013 PRIMES baseline scenario  – a scenario that outlines developments taking into account current trends and policies - and the often discussed 40% greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 (with respect to 1990 emissions) are not in line with a pathway that is on track to reach a 80-95% emission reduction by 2050. This pathway is outlined in the “Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050” by the European Commission. The gap in 2030 between the PRIMES baseline scenario and a pathway towards an emission reduction of 95% by 2050 is nearly 1 GtCO2 (4 vs. 3 GtCO2). Ecofys identified and quantified six actions (“wedges”) related to energy efficiency, renewables and agriculture that can close this gap. Fortunately, significant emission reductions beyond the baseline are feasible. Next to deep greenhouse gas emission reductions, the identified actions have many additional benefits, such as energy cost savings, additional jobs, air-quality improvements and a reduced import dependency on fossil fuels.