Enhancing mitigation ambitions in major emitting countries

Analysis of current and potential climate policies

Published: 03/12/2014

This preliminary study provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in seven major emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and the United States) up to 2030. PBL, Ecofys, NewClimate Institute and IIASA estimated the impact of current, planned and selected enhanced policies on greenhouse gas emissions, using existing scenarios and model calculations. The emission projection associated with the enhanced mitigation policies shows that by replicating ‘best-in-class’ policies or progressing to identified benchmarks, it is possible to significantly increase current mitigation efforts. The main findings are:

  • Some countries are likely to achieve their 2020 pledges through current policies, while others require the effective implementation of planned policies or additional measures.
  • In all the countries considered, significant further reductions are possible through an illustrative (not exhaustive) selection of enhanced mitigation actions that are related to current national priorities. These selected enhanced policies are still insufficient to stay below the 2 °C climate target.
  • With the selected enhanced mitigation actions, Brazil, China and Mexico would stabilise emissions by 2030 at the latest. Japan and the United States would achieve a pathway with further reductions in line with their long-term targets. Emissions in India and Indonesia would continue to increase strongly, but to lower levels compared to the emission projections associated with the current policies.

This pre-release looks at seven countries, while the full version will include all twelve major emitting countries analysed. The final report will be published in March 2015.

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Karlien Wouters
Climate Strategies and Policies
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