Climate Action Tracker: Improvement in warming outlook as India and China move ahead, but Paris Agreement gap still looms large

Published: 15/11/2017

While US climate policy has been rolled back under President Trump, India and China have moved ahead, making significant progress in climate action over the past year, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said in its update presented at COP23 today.

Actions in China and India have made a difference to the CAT’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections based on government policies currently in place, leading to a 0.2°C decrease in projected warming—to 3.4˚C by 2100, compared with 3.6˚C in November 2016.

This is the first time since the CAT began tracking action in 2009 that policies at a national level have visibly reduced its end of century temperature estimate and reduced the 2030 emissions gap between policies and what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit. The Climate Action Tracker now projects global emissions under current policies in 2030 to be 1.7 GtCO2e per year lower than last year’s projection. An optimistic case assuming implementation of planned, but not yet implemented, policies is even lower—at 4.1 GtCO2 a year, which would lead to a warming estimate of 3.1˚C.

Find more information in our press release.