EU pathways to a decarbonised building sector

Published: 30/06/2016

The heating industry supports a development of an overarching policy approach on European level to reach EU climate targets. To help quantify the contribution from heating, the association of the European Heating Industry asked Ecofys to perform a scenario evaluation of the European residential heating sector to evaluate how an accelerated replacement of decentralised heating systems in existing buildings and future developments in low carbon heating technologies can contribute to reach EU energy and climate saving targets.

The scenario outcomes show that the energy need of European residential buildings can be reduced by 12%, the delivered energy by 19% and that carbon dioxide emissions can be lowered by 18.5% with realistic assumptions from the heating industry on future developments in the heating market in 2030 compared to 2015.

Comparing the scenario results to the EU carbon reduction target for 2030 based on the EU “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, it can be concluded that the acceleration of heating system replacements and the heating system mix developments – in combination with an energy need reduction – lead to carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 ranging within the EU target corridor.