Renewable energy: a 2030 scenario for the EU

Published: 13/02/2013

In February 2011, Ecofys published The Energy Report (TER), a global scenario for a transition to a fully renewable global energy system. This report by Ecofys for WWF‘s European Policy Office (EPO) was written to specifically answer questions by WWF EPO with respect to the European implications of The Energy Report.

The European Union has adopted clear emission reduction, energy savings and renewable energy targets for 2020: 20% emission reduction of GHG compared to 1990; 20% of primary energy savings and 20% renewable energy share in energy consumption. Even if the targets are met in 2020 this does not ensure that climate change is kept within 2°C in the long run. We have derived an ambitious, yet feasible energy scenario for the EU27 for 2030 which is consistent with WWF‘s global TER vision for a fully renewable global energy system by 2050. Our EU27 energy scenario envisages a share of renewable energy sources (RES) of 41% in 2030, which includes 19% from sustainable biomass. Within the power sector, which is easier to decarbonise than heat and fuels, the scenario reaches a 65% share of RES. Energy savings on primary energy are estimated to be ~38% in this scenario compared to the 2007 baseline. Energy related emission reductions compared to 1990 are estimated to be 50%. Compared to other analysed EU scenarios for 2030 the TER EU27 analysis has low final energy demand and a RES amount comparable to other studies.

Please find additional information in the WWF report based on our analysis. A global scenario for a fully sustainable energy system by 2050 is available in The Enegy Report.

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Yvonne Deng
Climate Strategies and Policies
Kornelis Blok
Management Team