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Reference scenario for the German building sector


German Federal Institute for Research on Building (BBSR)
beam2 by Ecofys

Reference scenario in the building sector for the overall target of 40% CO2 emissions reduction by 2020

This study's objective was the "development of a reference scenario in the building sector for the overall target of 40% CO2 emissions reduction by 2020", referring to the German building stock and the CO2 emissions in 1990. The reference scenario represents the effects of policy measures for the building sector which have been implemented until 1st of January 2010. Basically all buildings of the sector’s households, commercial services and transport are being considered.

Existing studies as well as statistical data (BMWi energy data) have been analysed in an ex-post evaluation. Effects already achieved by policy measures in the building sector have been quantified by the year 2010.

Subsequently a scenario calculation has been carried out from the year 2010 to the year 2020, which perpetuates the effects of policy measures currently in force. In addition to the main scenario, sensitivities for different retrofit rates, ongoing climate change and the impact of population growth have been calculated. The calculations are based on the “Built-Environment-Analysis-Model“ BEAM², which was developed by Ecofys. The development of areas, heating demand, final and primary energy consumption as well as CO2 emissions are essential results of this study.

On this basis, the target achievement in terms of emission reduction in the period 1990-2020, as well as the reduction of heating demand in the period 2008-2020 have been outlined. Furthermore the report proposes additional policy instruments and sketches further needs for research.