Press releases

Climate pledges will bring 2.7 of warming, potential for more action: Climate Action Tracker

Published: 08/12/2015

Paris-8 December 2015 - With 158 climate pledges now submitted to the UN, accounting for 94% of global emissions, the Climate Action Tracker today confirmed this would result in around 2.7˚C of warming in 2100 – if all governments met their pledge.   
 
“This level of warming is still well above the agreed limit of 2degrees, and even further above the 1.5degrees called for by most governments here at the Paris climate summit,” said Dr Marcia Rocha of Climate Analytics. 
 
If those governments who submitted a conditional target were to have their conditions met, and increased their climate action accordingly, and if those who plan to build new coal plants were to cancel them, the gap can be reduced substantially.
 
“Looking at the conditional climate pledges, it’s clear that governments have already identified the potential for further mitigation and this could substantially contribute to closing the emissions gap – by around 15 percent,” said Dr Louise Jeffery of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.  
 
The CAT also released an analysis showing that if just a few governments were to increase their climate action, the savings associated with reducing deaths from air pollution could offset the costs, and substantially reduce the emissions gap.
 
The new analysis on co-benefits shows that Governments can offset the cost of stronger climate policies by taking into account the savings associated with reduced mortality only from harmful air pollutants such as particulate matter and ozone.  
 
It shows that if just four governments - China, India, Japan, Russia, as well as the EU - were to take such action, they could reduce the 2 degree emissions gap by 25-45% and  the 1.5 degree gap by 20-34%.
 
“There are so many co-benefits from taking action on climate change,” said Prof Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute. “Even with this very narrow and conservative analysis, showing the health benefits from from cutting air pollution, we see that cutting emissions makes good economic sense, and could significantly narrow the emissions gap.”
 
Last week the CAT released a report showing the potential impact on the climate from planned coal plants.  The CAT has analysed that if these plants were not built, it would avoid 1.9-2.3GtCO2e of emissions in 2030.
 
“Right now, with the policies governments have in place, we are heading to a warming of 3.6 degrees,” said Prof Kornelis Blok of Ecofys.  “Cancelling coal plants, while ramping up renewable energy and energy efficiency would reduce this ‘policy gap’ by a substantial amount. This is an important step towards decarbonising the power sector by mid-century.” 
 
The CAT’s most recent INDC, and now posted on the website, are:  Bhutan (sufficient), Costa Rica (sufficient), The Gambia (sufficient), the Philippines (medium) and UAE (inadequate). 

Links to briefings

Final CAT INDC analysis 
Co Benefits Executive Summary 

Contacts (all in Paris)
Media:  Cindy Baxter +33 6 38 62 19 59
Dr Marcia Rocha, Climate Analytics:  +33 6 42 31 35 67
Dr Louise Jeffery, PIK: +33 6 42 31 36 36
Prof Niklas Hohne, NewClimate Institute:  +49 173 715 2279
Prof Kornelis Blok, Ecofys:  +31 30 662 3399

http://www.climateactiontracker.org 
 
The Climate Action Tracker is an independent, science-based assessment that tracks government action on climate, meaasuring it against the globally-agreed warming limit of 2˚C.   It is a joint project of the following organisations:
 
Climate Analytics
Climate Analytics is a non-profit organisation based in Berlin, Germany, with offices in Lomé, Togo and New York, USA, that brings together inter-disciplinary expertise in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change. Its activities include: synthesising and advancing scientific knowledge in the area of climate change science, policy and impacts; providing science and policy support to the Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States in international climate negotiations, and the tracking and analysing the effectiveness of national climate policies globally.
Contact: Dr. h.c. Bill Hare, +49 160 908 62463
www.climateanalytics.org
 
Ecofys – Experts in Energy 
Established in 1984 with the mission of achieving “sustainable energy for everyone”, Ecofys has become the leading expert in renewable energy, energy & carbon efficiency, energy systems & markets as well as energy & climate policy. The unique synergy between those areas of expertise is the key to its success. Ecofys creates smart, effective, practical and sustainable solutions for and with public and corporate clients all over the world. With offices in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom, Ecofys employs over 200 experts dedicated to solving energy and climate challenges.
Contact: Prof Kornelis Blok, +31 6 558 667 36
www.ecofys.com

NewClimate Institute
NewCLimate Institute is a non-profit institute established in 2014. NewClimate Institute supports research and implementation of action against climate change around the globe, covering the topics international climate negotiations, tracking climate action, climate and development, climate finance and carbon market mechanisms. NewClimate Institute aims at connecting up-to-date research with the real world decision making processes. Contact: Dr. Niklas Höhne, +49 173 715 2279
www.newclimate.org
 
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
The PIK conducts research into global climate change and issues of sustainable development. Set up in 1992, the Institute is regarded as a pioneer in interdisciplinary research and as one of the world's leading establishments in this field. Scientists, economists and social scientists work together, investigating how the earth is changing as a system, studying the ecological, economic and social consequences of climate change, and assessing which strategies are appropriate for sustainable development.
Contact: Dr. Louise Jeffery, louise.jeffery@pik-potsdam.de
www.pik-potsdam.de