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Home > News
> Press releases > Copenhagen climate deal only half way to what is needed |
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Press release 14 December 2009 |  |
| COPENHAGEN CLIMATE DEAL ONLY HALF WAY TO WHAT IS NEEDED
Copenhagen: 14 December 2009. With only five days to go before a Head of Government Agreement on climate change at Copenhagen, even the best emission reductions proposal are only half way to the limits in 2020 that would keep global average temperature rise below 2°C or 1.5°C as called for by 100 countries according to a new assessment by the “Climate Action Tracker” of Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). In the last week India and South Africa have made pledges, Mexico increased its pledge, but the Russian delegation decreased its ambition level in the negotiations. With these new developments the world is still headed for a global warming of 3.5oC by 2100 (2.8 to 4.3°C). Carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to be over 650 ppm in 2100, far above the 350 ppm limit called for by many countries. Total GHG concentrations would be close to 800 ppm CO2 equivalent by 2100. “The least ambitious options on the table would result in global emissions 20% above present by 2020 and with even the best options on the table GHG emissions would still be rising above present levels by 2020” said Dr Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics. “The best proposals on the table are only half way to what the science indicates are the emission limits in 2020 that are needed for a good chance of limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. The best proposals give about 9 billion tonnes, whereas at least 13-17 billion tonnes of reductions are needed.” said Dr (h.c.) Bill Hare of Climate Analytics. “There are a wide range of options for countries to reduce global emissions further than the best of what is currently proposed and to bridge the gap of 4 to 8 billion tonnes that is needed to reach a safer emissions level ” said Dr Niklas Höhne of Ecofys. With present policies Climate Action Tracker projects total GHG emissions in 2020 to be around 57 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent per year from all sources (business as usual). The low ambition end of the proposals on the table less than five days before the deadline for agreement deliver a reduction of only 2 billion tonnes. The strongest proposals, which are nearly all conditional on a strong Copenhagen agreement, with financial support for developing countries, would reduce up to a further 7 billion tonnes. In ten years from now global emissions will need to be below 40-44 billion tonnes per year (i.e. below current levels of 46 billion tonnes per year, 2008) to have more than an even chance of limiting warming to 2°C, as called for by the major emitters globally, or ultimately to below 1.5°C by 2100 as put forward by 100 developing countries, including the Small Island States and Least Developed Countries as essential for their survival. Provided that all of most ambitious measures on the table now are agreed, the required additional reductions of 4 to 8 billion tonnes could be reached for example by any combination of:
Currently projected emissions for the 2008-2012 period by Annex I countries as a whole are less than their aggregate targets (allowed emissions) under the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period (2008-2012). Under Kyoto Protocol rules, surplus 'assigned amount units' (AAUs - allowed emissions) from this period may be carried over to subsequent commitment periods and hence be used to increase effective emissions allowances after 2012. The total amount of surplus AAUs is large enough to allow the Annex I countries as a group to follow a business-as-usual emission pathway until after 2020 (longer after 2020 for the lowest end of the Copenhagen reduction proposals), while still complying with the currently announced reduction targets. This implies that overall emissions of the developed countries would be only 3% below 1990 levels by 2020. Given these currently existing rules and provisions of the Kyoto Protocol, we have assumed that all surplus AAUs would ultimately be emitted to the atmosphere in our climate model projections. Once these are exhausted (shortly after 2020), Annex I countries’ emissions assumed to revert from their business-as-usual projection to the allowed emission reduction pathway, including the assumed forest credits. If the amount of surplus AAUs from the first and/or subsequent commitment periods were to be limited as part of a new agreement on mitigating global warming, we will include that in an update of our analysis. However, we have not included these surplus AAUs in the reduction levels that may be reached above, opting instead for a direct estimate of current proposals. The Climate Action Tracker The “Climate Action Tracker”, is a science based assessment by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that provides regularly updated information on countries’ reduction proposals. The Climate Action Tracker reveals major differences between the ambition levels of countries when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the lead are the Maldives and Costa Rica, which have proposed to become climate-neutral by around 2020. At the high end of the scale are Norway, Japan and Brazil, which are proposing to reduce their emissions significantly. In the “medium” range are developing countries such as India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Korea, who propose to reduce the growth of their emissions by the 2020s. The EU is a special case, in that its unconditional commitment is rated “inadequate”. However, if it’s 30% reduction target were to be adopted, the EU would move into the “medium” range and very close to “sufficient”. China has moved down a category, because it’s recently announced target falls short of the ambition level that we had expected from the implementation of the current national policies. Between the middle and the bottom of the scale is the United States, whose recently proposed actions are “inadequate”, i.e. they do not fall within the range that is needed to keep global warming within lower limits. At the very bottom end of the scale are countries that have yet to propose substantial action beyond “business as usual”. These include Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.
Note for the editor The web-based based climate policy assessment system “Climate Action Tracker” was developed by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It provides a picture of each country’s proposed commitments and actions and how these contribute to total greenhouse gas emission reductions globally. The Climate Action Tracker enables the public to track the emission commitments and actions of countries. The website provides an up-to-date assessment of individual country pledges about greenhouse gas emission reductions. It also plots the consequences for the global climate of commitments and actions made ahead of and during the Copenhagen Climate Summit. The Climate Action Tracker shows that much greater transparency is needed when it comes to targets and actions proposed by countries. For developed countries, accounting for forests and land-use change significantly degrades the overall stringency of the targets. For developing countries climate plans often lack calculations of the resulting impact on emissions. You can find the Climate Action Tracker at www.climateactiontracker.org. Ecofys and Climate Analytics are both research organizations that specialize in energy and climate-related issues. +49 221 270 70 110 climateactiontracker@ecofys.com Climate Analytics Michiel Schaeffer michiel.schaeffer@climateanalytics.org +45 53112725 in Copenhagen
Dr Niklas Höhne – Director of Energy and Climate Policy at Ecofys and lead author at the IPCC developed, together with Dr Michel den Elzen from MNP, the table in the IPCC report that is the basis for the reduction range of -25% to -40% below 1990 levels by 2020 that is currently being discussed for Annex I countries. The team at Ecofys includes: Katja Eisbrenner, Christian Ellermann, Markus Hagemann, Sara Moltmann and others. Dr Michiel Schaeffer – Co-Director and Senior Scientist at Climate Analytics, which includes Policy Analyst Kirsten Macey, among others. Dr Claudine Chen works on the PRIMAP model at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), along with Julia Nabel, Joeri Rogelj, and other members of the PRIMAP team (www.primap.org). Dr Bill Hare (PIK and Climate Analytics) was a Lead Author of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and is the co-leader of the PRIMAP team, with Dr Malte Meinshausen of PIK.
CLIMATE ANALYTICS GmbH is a non-profit organization based in Potsdam, Germany. CLIMATE ANALYTICS has been established to synthesize climate science that is relevant for international climate policy negotiations. It provides scientific, policy and analytical support for Small Island States (SIDS) and the least developed country group (LDCs) negotiators, as well as non-governmental organisations and other stakeholders in the ‘post-2012’ negotiations. Furthermore, it aims to assist in building in-house capacity within SIDS and LDCs.
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