Home > Areas of expertise > Energy and climate change strategies > Energy and emission scenarios

Scenarios developed for the energy supply side can be used to gain insight into the characteristics of the future supply system and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. This makes it possible to assess potential problems related to the security of supply. Scenarios based on a continuation of current trends (business as usual) can be contrasted with those that assume the implementation of certain policies. This way, scenarios can play a useful role in policy evaluation and design. They also help with matching energy demand and energy supply, safeguarding the security of energy supply and the effects of energy-efficiency improvement and the diversification of fuels. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios can play a role in assessing future greenhouse gas emission levels and the potential for reductions. Scenarios are also a useful tool for understanding market potentials, e.g. in market assessments for renewable energy technologies or emission credits.

Ecofys has extensive experience in developing energy and emission scenarios. Because of our broad range of activities we can bring together insights in the fields of energy supply and demand, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. This provides an excellent basis for identifying the different implementation potentials and their costs. Furthermore, our understanding of the effectiveness of policies and the day-to-day barriers for practical implementation helps us to establish realistic scenarios.

Our services include:

• Developing scenarios for energy demand, energy supply and greenhouse gas emission scenarios at the global, national and regional level over a period of 10-50 years
• Developing energy and emission forecast models
• Evaluating the effects of specific policies and measures related to energy consumption and emissions.
• Market assessment for emission allowances and credits under various assumptions
• Assessing the market potential of certain technologies under various policy assumptions
• Developing baseline scenarios for CDM/JI projects.

References:

• Assessing greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials and costs for all EU Member States by 2030 (SERPECC) – European Commission
• Global energy demand reduction potentials on a regional level in 2050 - Greenpeace and EREC
• Developing a low carbon vision for Greece, designed to achieve a 60-80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions - WWF Greece
• Assessing the potential for and costs of reducing non-energy greenhouse gases in Switzerland in 2050 – WWF Switzerland
• Developing renewable energy policy scenarios in the EU in light of its renewable energy targets for 2010 and 2020 – European Commission
• Developing GHG emission reductions scenarios for 2050 – Factor 4 in buildings and transport emissions - French Ministry of Transport, Housing & Infrastructure
• Developing long-term scenarios for renewable energy – an international energy company.